The Big Fish

Ladies and gentlemen, he got him. 

Ethan Grunkemeyer officially committed to Virginia Tech on Wednesday, giving James Franklin his biggest catch in this month's transfer portal haul. Make no mistake about it — Grunkemeyer is the odds-on favorite to be the Hokies’ starting quarterback in 2026. 

It’s been nearly a decade since a Virginia Tech quarterback put together a complete season worthy of recognition. Whether it was Josh Jackson, Ryan Willis, Hendon Hooker, Grant Wells, or Kyron Drones, the Hokies’ quarterback play has looked far too similar to the quarterback play of the Cleveland Browns. 

Can Grunkemeyer be the exception to the rule? Let’s dig a little deeper. 

Thrown Into the Fire 

With a redshirt season under his belt, Penn State still did not expect Grunkemeyer to have to contribute in 2025. Drew Allar was returning for his third season as a starter, and the Nittany Lions were widely considered contenders for the national championship. Grunkemeyer’s job was to stand on the sideline and learn as much as possible before he took over the starting job in 2026. 

Things, however, rarely go according to plan. 

Penn State’s season went off the rails on Oct. 4 in a 42-37 loss to UCLA. Things got worse the following weekend — Allar suffered a season-ending injury in a one-point loss to Northwestern, and James Franklin was dismissed. 

Making your first start under an interim head coach is one thing, but having to do so against an elite defense is another. In fact, Grunkemeyer’s first three starts came against Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana, all of whom sported top-10 defenses in 2025. 

Predictably, Grunkemeyer struggled in his first three starts. He threw just one touchdown, four interceptions, and was sacked seven times. To no one's surprise, Penn State lost each of those games.

Simplifying the Game 

As Penn State's schedule evened out, the Nittany Lions were able to ask less of their young signal caller.  

Over Penn State’s final four games, the Nittany Lions averaged 227 rushing yards per game. In those same games, Grunkemeyer threw six touchdowns, zero interceptions, and completed 73 percent of his throws. Unsurprisingly, Penn State’s effective run game spurned success in play-action. Let’s compare Grunkemeyer’s success with play-action concepts, as opposed to non-play-action concepts, in his final four starts. 

• Play-action: 24-of-34 (70%), 11.4 yards per attempt, 3 TDs 

• Non-play-action: 35-46 (76%), 8.41 yards per attempt, 3 TDs 

You might be saying, “Wait, those numbers aren’t that different.” That’s true, but only because many of those non-play-action throws were screen passes — something Grunkemeyer relied on heavily in the second half of the season. Over his final four games, Grunkemeyer attempted 31 screen passes, completing 28 of them (90%), with two of those resulting in touchdowns. 

What to Expect in 2026 

Much of the hype surrounding Grunkemeyer comes from his Pinstripe Bowl performance, where he gutted Clemson’s defense for 260 yards and two touchdowns. It was Grunkemeyer’s best outing of the season, but is it indicative of future success? 

It depends. 

Virginia Tech must build its offense around what Grunkemeyer does well — complete short and intermediate throws via screens and play-action. 

The Hokies enter 2026 with three productive running backs — Marcellous Hawkins, Jeff Overton, and Elijah “Bill” Davis — who will help Virginia Tech recreate the conditions in which Grunkemeyer succeeded in 2025. 

Running backs alone won’t do it. Grunkemeyer needs a strong offensive line, something the Hokies didn't have last season. Grunkemeyer isn’t much of a runner, though he can escape the pocket and buy extra time for receivers to get open. Still, like most quarterbacks, Grunkemeyer is much better in a clean pocket. In those situations, Grunkemeyer finished 2025 with a Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade of 81.7. When pressured, his PFF grade dropped to 45.8.

If Virginia Tech’s pass protection looks anything like it did in 2025, it will be a very long season for Grunkemeyer and his new team. 

Even with those limitations, Grunkemeyer offers an intriguing blend of short-term ability and long-term potential. As he gets more snaps and becomes more comfortable in Ty Howle’s offense, Grunkemeyer should develop into more than a game manager who relies on easier throws.  

With that said, Grunkemeyer isn’t quite there yet. Virginia Tech needs to construct its offense in a way that allows Grunkemeyer to succeed in the short term, while developing into the quarterback that James Franklin believes he can be.